Theresa May will face the House on Tuesday evening. Source: Marco Verch (CC BY 2.0).

Theresa May has had a busy couple of weeks, seeing her Brexit deal voted down in Parliament, surviving a no-confidence vote and being put under the cosh numerous times during debates. She now must go back to Parliament with a ‘Plan B’ that will outline exactly what direction she intends to take Brexit. Here’s everything you need to know about the latest Brexit vote on May’s Plan B.

What is the Plan B vote?

The vote will be held in the House of Commons, and gives a chance for MPs to have a say on May’s proposed plan of action from here on out in regards to the UK’s departure from the EU. The House will once again vote on whether it’s in favour of May’s Brexit deal.

What is her Plan B?

The common consensus surrounding May’s Plan B is that it’s very much just her Plan A. Lead by Jeremy Corbyn, the Government’s opposition has claimed May is simply ‘running down the clock’ and holding fellow MPs to ransom by claiming the only way to avoid a no deal is to vote for her deal. Returning to Parliament with the same deal would back this theory, but it would be highly unlikely to be passed by the House.

In reality, specifics surrounding the Irish border and backstop agreements are said to be becoming softer, with May intending to return to Brussels to get further assurances. Her deal will be debated extensively prior to the vote, so there is potential for amendments from the House’s side as well. This may sway a few MPs in favour of the deal, but whether it will be enough to get it passed is another question.

When is the Plan B vote?

The Plan B vote will take place on Tuesday 29 January. Although an exact time cannot be set at this point, it’s likely to be in the early evening. If we use the precedent of the recent previous Brexit votes, a result could arrive at around 21:00. However, with a debate on the updated deal preceding the vote itself, timings will depend on the length of the discussions beforehand. 

How could the vote affect Brexit?

The vote can go in either one of two ways; rejection or approval. However, there are many more than just two outcomes that derive from the vote’s result. In terms of Brexit specifically, a rejection of May’s Plan B and (supposed) improved deal would increase the chance of a no-deal Brexit.

May has suggested that extending Article 50 would be redundant, as it would simply be delaying an inevitable outcome; eventually the House either must commit to a deal or not. As we draw closer to the departure in March, the vast number of options still available for Brexit will slowly dwindle, but at present we’re most likely looking at a no-deal Brexit, an Article 50 extension, a second referendum or even a change in PM – the latter being the least likely outcome.

How could the vote affect the markets?

Politics aside, how exactly could this vote impact upon the markets? Well in terms of what is most susceptible to change based on Brexit news, markets involving GBP are very volatile. GBP/USD and GBP/EUR are typically the most popular pound markets to trade. The vote earlier on in the month saw the pound's price rise sharply in the immediate aftermath, and it has continued on a steady increase ever since. 

Cable 25.01

Graph showing rise of the pound over the last ten days. Source: TraderPro

Specific company’s prices may be interesting to monitor as well, with more and more firms pulling out of the UK. If the firm’s withdrawal from the UK results in jobs losses that aren’t recouped elsewhere, this may symbolise negative growth and impact upon that specific company’s price.

It’s suggested that firms are pulling out of the UK more out of fear for the unknown, rather than specific fears about the UK post-Brexit. Therefore, was May’s deal to be accepted by the House, the clarity it would then offer (regardless of whether or not it may negatively affect businesses) could steady this migration away from the UK– as firms would be able to at least plan a course of action to combat any changes that will arrive. At the moment, planning is difficult as there are no certainties about what’s going to happen.

In general, these types of votes have the potential to shake up a lot of markets. Typically, heavy volatility has come in the immediate aftermath of these votes as traders react to the news.

Our award-winning TraderPro platform offers daily out-of-hours trading on a range of top markets, so you too can react immediately to the outcome of the vote, and won’t miss any opportunity to trade. Simply login or sign up to enjoy ourTraderPro platform.