Earnings season is winding down but there is no shortage of big economic releases this week with a batch of inflation readings and fourth quarter GDP prints due out. Meanwhile markets will be focused on the US again and Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen.

Yellen

 

Fed chair Yellen takes centre stage on Wednesday as she begins her two-day testimony before the Senate Banking Committee. She’s likely to face some tough questions, particularly from some of the more hawkish Republicans, over the timing and pace of any interest rate hikes this year. Many think the Fed should be tightening faster than it is and even Ms Yellen has warned that there might be a “nasty surprise” if it waits too long to continue raising rates. While he will not be present at the hearing, president Trump has been a critic of Yellen and we might expect some running commentary from him on the Fed’s handling of monetary policy.

After a marginally dovish Fed meeting in January that indicated rates would not rise until the summer, the odds of a spring rate hike increased after Philly Fed president Patrick Harker said he would support hiking rates in March.

Inflation

 

On the data front, UK inflation figures on Tuesday will be closely watched for signs of accelerating price rises that could force the Bank of England (BoE) to raise interest rates.

At its last meeting the BoE forecast inflation to overshoot but it seems content to weather this for a while. Mark Carney warned that its tolerance for above-target inflation is limited. But while the next move on rates could be in either direction, there appears to be significant hurdles to the Bank hiking interest rates any time soon.

GDP

 

Japan reports its preliminary fourth-quarter GDP reading on Sunday night as forex markets open for trading. The data is expected to show that the world’s third-largest economy is enjoying something of a rebound, although don’t expect any fireworks.

Meanwhile on Tuesday we have the flash Q4 2016 GDP reading for the Eurozone. Again we are seeing tentative signs of a recovery in growth and inflation, while employment is also improving as the effects of the European Central Bank’s QE programme begin to be felt. Another strong reading could put a bit more pressure on the ECB to think about tapering sooner rather than later.

Economic Calendar

(All times GMT)

Sunday, 12 February

23:50 – Japan preliminary Q4 2016 GDP reading

Monday, 13 February

Tentative – German Buba monthly report

Tuesday, 14 February

01:30 – China CPI and PPI inflation

07:00 – German preliminary Q4 2016 GDP reading, final CPI inflation

07:45 – French final CPI inflation

08:15 – Swiss CPI and PPI inflation

09:00 – Italian preliminary Q4 2016 GDP reading

09:30 – UK CPI, PPI, RPI and HPI inflation readings

10:00 – Eurozone flash Q4 2016 GDP reading, industrial production

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment

13:30 – US PPI inflation

15:00 – Fed chair Janet Yellen to testify before the Senate Banking Committee

Wednesday, 15 February

09:30 – UK unemployment rate, average earnings

13:30 – US CPI inflation, retail sales, Empire State Manufacturing index

15:00 - Fed chair Janet Yellen to testify before the Senate Banking Committee

15:30 – US crude oil inventories

Thursday, 16 February

00:30 – Australia unemployment rate

12:30 – ECB monetary policy meeting accounts

13:30 – US Philly Fed manufacturing index, building permits, housing starts, weekly unemployment claims

Friday, 17 February

09:30 – UK retail sales

Earnings Calendar

 

Tuesday, 14 February

American International Group (AIG) – Q4/2016, EPS estimate 0.540

Rolls-Royce (RR) – Y/2016, EPS estimate 0.241

TUI Travel (TT) – Q1/2017

Wednesday, 15 February

Cisco (CSCO) – Q2/2017, EPS estimate 0.561

PepsiCo (PEP) – Q4/2016, EPS estimate 1.156

Thursday, 16 February

Shire (SHP) – Y/2016, EPS estimate 4.319

BP (BP) - Ex-dvidend

Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA + RDSB) - Ex-dividend

AstraZeneca (AZN) - Ex-dividend

Imperial Brands (IMB) - Ex-dividend

Friday, 17 February

Allianz (ALV) – Y/2016, EPS estimate 14.629

Source: Bloomberg


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