The main market focus this week is the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and interest rate decision. After beating a hawkish drum through May, officials have retreated somewhat following the super-weak non-farm payrolls report at the start of June. In addition to the soggy US jobs figures – which saw just 38k jobs added in May - Fed officials may not want to rock the boat with the Brexit vote looming.

Fed chair Janet Yellen said on June 6th that rates would not rise until new uncertainties about the economy are resolved. Just a fortnight before she had said rates would increase in the “coming months”. She also warned of the “significant economic repercussions” if the UK were to leave the EU.

Fed funds futures show a marked shift in market sentiment. The implied chances of rates rising in June is around 4%, having been above 30% in May after minutes from the April meeting demonstrated policymakers were close to hiking.

The Fed is not the only central bank in action this week – we also have policy decisions due from the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Swiss National Bank and the Bank of England.

The BoJ may be forced into action as it cannot rely on the Fed for help on the yen. A surging currency has got investors talking about possible intervention by Japan’s central bank but it may prefer to launch fresh stimulus. However, with rates already negative and just about every shred of government paper already accounted for, it’s unclear just what the BoJ can do now with monetary policy.

Economic Calendar

(All times are BST)

Tuesday June 14th

09:30 – UK consumer price inflation

13:30 – US retail sales

Wednesday June 15th

09:30 – UK unemployment

13:30 – US producer price inflation

15:30 – US crude oil inventories

19:00 – FOMC statement and Federal Funds Rate

19:30 – FOMC press conference with Janet Yellen

Thursday June 16th

Tentative – Bank of Japan monetary policy statement & press conference

08:30 – Swiss National Bank monetary policy statement & press conference

12:00 – Bank of England monetary policy statement and meeting minutes

13:30 – US core consumer price inflation; Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

Friday June 17th

13:30 – Canadian core consumer price inflation


Thursday June 16th

Mulberry (MUL) – Y/2016, EPS estimate 0.050

Poundland (PLND) – Y/2016, EPS estimate 0.086

Oracle (ORCL) – Q4/2016, EPS estimate 0.815

Added market volatility means increased opportunity but also more risk. To reflect this, ETX Capital may be increasing margin rates on certain markets.