UK inflation


Following the Brexit talks and some turmoil in the cabinet over the last few days, the focus for sterling traders returns to the data this week. On Tuesday is the release of the latest CPI inflation figures, which are expected to remain steady at around the 3% mark.

Rising inflation helped the Bank of England hike interest rates but it’s expected to fall back towards the 2% target level fairly soon as the worst of the pound’s decline no longer forms part of the year-on-year calculations.

US retail sales and inflation


Following the British data we have the monthly CPI inflation and retail sales data dump from the US on Wednesday.  Higher gas prices meant a jump in the headline rate, underlying inflation remained a slack. Core CPI rose 1.7% year-on-year in September, flat from the month before. Retail sales bounced 1.6% to record their best gain in two and a half years.

The figures are important for the Federal Reserve’s assessment of the US economy ahead of the December policy meeting, at which the FOMC is widely anticipated to hike interest rates again. Softer inflation has been looked through but the Fed has indicated a bit more concern about the lack of price growth of late.

Last month, the dual release disappointed and was taken as an excuse to sell the USD. However with consensus very much towards the Fed hiking in December and increasingly the strong growth story backing further hikes in 2018, the USD quickly recovered and rallied.


Eurozone flash GDP


The Eurozone recovery motors on. Or does it? The single currency bloc has been a bright spot this year and the flash GDP estimate on Tuesday is expected to confirm more progress. But whatever the rate of growth in the economy, it seems like there is no rushing the European Central Bank in dialling back stimulus. The preliminary data for Q3 showed growth of 0.6%, ahead of forecasts  but could be revised higher if the recent trend for such adjustments is followed.



More cannibalisation by Amazon or has Wal-Mart staunched the wound? Shares in WMT have actually managed to keep pace with AMZN this year as rising ecommerce sales have allowed it to mix it online. In August the company said online purchases had climbed 60% during the second quarter of this year,

According to Zacks Investment Research, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.97, a marginal fall from the $0.98 reported in the same period a year ago. All eyes are on the outlook after the retail giant said it could expand its US ecommerce business by 40% in fiscal 2019.

For UK investors there is always the added interest of Asda’s performance and what it entails for big FTSE stocks like Tesco, Sainsbury’s and Morrison’s. In August it confirmed Asda returned to positive like-for-like sales in the second quarter.

Economic Calendar

(All times GMT)

Monday, 13 November

06:00 – Japan preliminary machine tool orders

19:00 – US Federal budget balance

Tuesday, 14 November

00:30 – Australia NAB business confidence

02:00 – China industrial production, fixed asset investment, retail sales

07:00 – German preliminary GDP, final CPI inflation

08:15 – Swiss PPI inflation

09:00 – Italian preliminary GDP

09:30 – UK CPI, PPI inflation

10:00 – Eurozone flash GDP estimate, German ZEW economic sentiment

13:30 – US PPI inflation

23:50 – Japan preliminary GDP estimate

Wednesday, 15 November

00:30 – Australia wage price index

07:45 – French final CPI inflation

09:30 – UK average earnings, unemployment rate

13:30 – US CPI inflation, retail sales, Empire State manufacturing

15:30 – US crude oil inventories

Thursday, 16 November

00:30 – Australia employment change, unemployment rate

09:30 – UK retail sales

10:00 – Eurozone final CPI

13:30 – Canada manufacturing sales, foreign securities purchases

13:30 – US weekly unemployment claims, import prices, Philly Fed manufacturing index

14:15 – US capacity utilisation rate, industrial production

21:30 – New Zealand business NZ manufacturing index

21:45 – New Zealand PPI input

Friday, 17 November

13:30 – Canada CPI inflation, retail sales

13:30 – US building permits, housing starts

Corporate Calendar


Monday, 13 November

Lonmin (LMI) – Final results and Q4 production report

Ladbrokes Coral Group (LCL) – trading update

Taylor Wimpey (TW.) – trading update

Tuesday, 14 November

Land Securities Group (LAND) – interim results

Speedy Hire (SDY) – interim results

Vodafone Group (VOD) – interim results

ITV (ITV) – trading update

Bovis Homes Group (BVS) – trading update

Home Depot (HD) – Q3/2018, EPS estimate 1.810

Wednesday, 15 November

Premier Foods (PFD) – interim results

Barratt Developments – trading update

Cisco Systems (CSCO) – Q1/2018, EPS estimate 0.600

Target Corp (TGT) – Q3/2018, EPS estimate 0.853

Thursday, 16 November

Assura (AGR) – interim results

British Land Company (BLND) – interim results

Dart Group (DTG) – interim results

Mediclinic International (MDC) – interim results

QinetiQ Group (QQ.) – interim results

Royal Mail (RMG) – interim results

Premier Oil (PMO) – trading update

Gap Inc (GPS) – Q3/2018, EPS estimate 0.544

Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) – Q3/2018, EPS estimate 0.975

Friday, 17 November

Foot Locker (FL) – Q3/2018, 0.805


Source: Bloomberg


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