General Election

 

The main event this week is the UK’s General Election. Voting takes place on Thursday June 8th, with an exit poll due shortly after 22:00 (BST) and results to filter through over Friday morning.

When Theresa May called the snap vote on April 18th, the pound rallied from just above the $1.25 level to eventually breach $1.30 in May.

The pound appeared to be firming up on hopes of a smooth exit led by Mrs May. It might be a hard Brexit but the market didn't seem to mind too much as long as domestically the government was secure. An early election and big majority for the pound was seen as smoothing the path for Britain’s exit from the EU. But the assumptions investors have been working to are no longer certain as the polls have narrowed.

Labour has closed the gap to the Tories and a YouGov poll published on Wednesday suggested the Conservatives could even lose some seats. This has left the result of the election far from certain, although we must stress that overall, the polls still suggest Theresa May will increase her majority in the House of Commons. Uncertainty over the result has left the pound trailing.

For more on the election and how it might impact the markets, head to the blog for the latest analysis:

May vs. Corbyn: Are markets worried about a Labour win?

General Election: Does Theresa May poll wobble signal risks for pound?

General Election: How the stock market performs in election years

Aussie data

 

It’s also a big week for Aussie traders, with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decision due in the early hours of June 6th. That’s followed by first quarter GDP numbers for the country on Wednesday, again in the early hours of the morning.

At the last meeting, the RBA left the main cash rate at the historic low of 1.5% and governor Phillip Lowe signalled a potential end to the cycle of interest rate cuts. “A gradual further increase in underlying inflation is expected as the economy strengthens," he said.

Since the end of the commodity super-cycle Australia’s growth has been a touch sluggish but the country remains on track to notch up yet another quarter of growth, extending its 25-year run without a recession.

ECB

 

As Britons go to the polls on June 8th, there is not insignificant issue of the European Central Bank’s policy meeting and the always hotly-anticipated press conference with Mario Draghi.

Signals are mixed ahead of the meeting. Sources have suggested that policymakers will start talking about to reduce stimulus but the dove Draghi has been more cautious about the extent to which the bank is ready to dial bank its accommodative strategy. Some pretty volatile inflation figures suggest the ECB chief is right to take it slow.

Hopes of continued uptick in inflation were dashed last week as Eurostat reported inflation fell to 1.4% in the year through May from 1.9% the month before. The more closely watched core rate, which strips out volatile items like foot and energy, fell to 0.9% from 1.2% the previous month.

Nevertheless, the ECB is set to affirm that risks to Eurozone growth have receded and it could reassess its outlook for growth and inflation.

"Downside risks to the growth outlook are further diminishing, and some of the tail risks we were facing at the end of last year have receded measurably," Mr Draghi told the European Parliament last month.

 

Economic Calendar

(All times BST)

Monday, 5 June

All day – Bank holiday in France, Germany, Switzerland

09:30 – UK services PMI

15:00 – US ISM non-manufacturing PMI, factory orders

Tuesday, 6 June

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision

08:55 – German final services PMI

09:00 – Eurozone final services PMI

15:00 – Canada Ivey PMI

15:00 – US JOLTS job openings

Wednesday, 7 June

02:30 – Australia GDP Q1

08:30 – UK Halifax house price index

10:00 – Eurozone revised GDP Q1

13:30 – Canada building permits

15:30 – US crude oil inventories

Thursday, 8 June

07:00 – 22:00 – UK General Election

00:01 – UK RICS house price index

00:50 – Japan final GDP Q1

02:30 – Australia trade balance

Tentative – China trade balance

12:45 – ECB interest rate decision

13:30 – ECB press conference

13:30 – US weekly unemployment claims

Friday, 9 June

02:30 – China CPI and PPI inflation

07:00 – German final CPI inflation, trade balance

07:45 – French government budget balance, industrial production

09:00 – Italian industrial production, quarterly unemployment rate

09:30 UK manufacturing production, goods trade balance

13:30 – Canada unemployment rate, employment change

Corporate Calendar

 

Monday, 5 June

Santander UK (ANL) – Q1/2017

Tuesday, 6 June

AO World (AO/)-  Y/2017

Thursday, 8 June

Flybe Group (FLYB) – Y/2017

Source: Bloomberg

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