By David Papier

So the ‘Trade War’ saga continues to cause concerns as midweek we saw the Trump administration propose an additional round of 10% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. China warned it would be forced to respond sparking fears an escalating trade war between the world’s two biggest economies could hit global growth and damage sentiment. Further developments on the subject could also over shadow important macro-economic data and corporate results throughout the week which normally would dictate market direction.

Donald Trump continues his global tour having already paid visits to Europe, now goes to Russia in the highly anticipated meeting with President Vladimir Putin. Trump has recently stated that he is not sure whether Putin is a friend or foe. They certainly have plenty to talk about with sanctions, Syria and the allegations of Russia meddling in US geopolitical events all on the agenda.

First up data wise we get Chinese GDP, key for metal prices, however this will not yet have factored in recent tariffs imposed by the US. Critical inflation data from the UK and Eurozone will be monitored closely on Wednesday. This has been a key gauge for monetary policy stimulus for both central banks. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates by 0.25% to 0.75% next month for only the second time in over a decade following strong recent UK data.


UK Results are gathering momentum. The main UK sector in focus this week will be the mining sector. Trading statements from Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton could dictate the whole sector which has a large weighting on the FTSE 100 and can be influential for that reason in moves up or down. The important thing to remember is that the US-China trade war could yield results redundant having such a bearing on the sector. Throughout the week we also see updates from Royal Mail, EasyJet, Severn Trent, Unilever and SSE.

US Results continue to come thick and fast. We continue to hear from some of the world’s biggest and most influential financial companies, such as Bank of America, Blackrock, Goldman Sachs and Bank of New York. Results from other sectors include the world’s largest aluminium miner Alcoa, tech behemoth Microsoft and Netflix.

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Economic Calendar

(All times are in BST)

Monday, 16th July

Trump – Putin meeting speech
03:00 CN Retail Sales (YoY) (Jun)
03:00 CN Industrial Production (YoY) (May)
03:00 CN Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2)
03:00 CN Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q2)
13:30 US Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (Jun)
13:30 US Retail Sales (MoM) (Jun)
13:30 US Retail Sales control group (Jun)
23:45 NZD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Q2)
23:45 NZD Consumer Price Index (QoQ) (Q2)

Tuesday, 17th July

01:30 AUD RBA Meeting Minutes
09:30 UK Average Earnings excluding Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (May)
09:30 UK Average Earnings including Bonus (3Mo/Yr) (May)
09:30 UK ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (May)
14:15 US Industrial Production (MoM) (Jun)
21:30 US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Wednesday, 18th July

09:30 UK Retail Price Index (YoY) (Jun)
09:30 UK Retail Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
09:30 UK Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
09:30 UK Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun)
09:30 UK Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun)
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun)
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) (Jun)
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
10:00 EUR Consumer Price Index – Core (YoY) (Jun)
13:30 US Housing Starts (MoM) (Jun)
13:30 US Building Permits (MoM) (Jun)
15:30 US EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change
19:00 US Fed’s Beige Book

Thursday, 19th July

00:50 JPN Exports (YoY) (Jun)
00:50 JPN Imports (YoY) (Jun)
02:30 AUD Employment Change s.a. (Jun)
02:30 AUD Part-Time Employment (Jun)
02:30 AUD Fulltime Employment (Jun)
02:30 AUD Unemployment Rate s.a. (Jun)
02:30 AUD Participation Rate (Jun)
09:30 UK Retail Sales ex-Fuel (MoM) (Jun)
09:30 UK Retail Sales ex-Fuel (YoY) (Jun)
09:30 UK Retail Sales (MoM)
09:30 UK Retail Sales (YoY)
13:30 US Continuing Jobless Claims
13:30 US Initial Jobless Claims
13:30 US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Jul)
13:30 CAD ADP Employment Change (Jun)

Friday, 20th July

00:50 JPN National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun)
00:50 JPN National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) (Jun)
00:50 JPN National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) (Jun)
00:50 JPN Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks
09:30 UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Jun)
12:30 CAD Retail Sales (MoM) (May)
12:30 CAD Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) (May)
12:30 CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (Jun)
12:30 CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (Jun)
12:30 CAD Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (Jun)
12:30 CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Jun)
12:30 CAD Consumer Price Index – Core (MoM) (Jun)
18:00 US Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

Corporate Calendar

Monday, 16th July

Rio Tinto – Trading Statement
W.H. Ireland Group – Final Results
Bank of America Corporation – Q2 Earnings
Blackrock – Q2 Earnings
Netflix – Q2 Earnings
Supercom – Q2 Earnings

Tuesday, 17th July

BHP Billiton – Trading Statement
Dairy Crest Group – Trading Statement
Galliford Try – Trading Statement
Royal Mail – Trading Statement
SSP Group – Trading Statement
Talk Talk Telecom Group – Trading Statement
Comercia Incorporated – Q2 Earnings
Fidelity National Financial – Q2 Earnings
First Horizon National – Q2 Earnings
Interactive Brokers Group – Q2 Earnings
Goldman Sachs Group – Q2 Earnings
Johnson & Johnson – Q2 Earnings
Prologis Corporation – Q2 Earnings
United Health Group – Q2 Earnings

Wednesday, 18th July

easyJet – Trading Statement
Hochschild Mining – Trading Statement
RPC Group – Trading Statement
Severn Trent – Trading Statement
Alcoa – Q2 Earnings
Canadian Pacific Railway – Q2 Earnings
eBay – Q2 Earnings
Ericsson – Q2 Earnings
International Business Machines – Q2 Earnings
Morgan Stanley – Q2 Earnings
Novartis AG – Q2 Earnings
U.S. Bancorp – Q2 Earnings
W.W Grainger – Q2 Earnings

Thursday, 19th July

AO World – Trading Statement
SSE – Trading Statement – Interim Results
Unilever – Interim Results
Sports Direct International – Final Results
ABB – Q2 Earnings
Bank of New York Mellon – Q2 Earnings
BB&T – Q2 Earnings
Capital One Financial – Q2 Earnings
Domino’s Pizza – Q2 Earnings
Intuitive Surgical – Q2 Earnings
Microsoft Corporation – Q2 Earnings
Philip Morris International – Q2 Earnings
SAP SE – Q2 Earnings
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company – Q2 Earnings
Snap-On – Q2 Earnings
Union Pacific Corporation – Q2 Earnings

Companies paying dividends 

Aquila Services Group Plc [AQSG] (0.55 p)
City Merchants High Yield Trust PLC [CMHY] (2.5 p)
Cranswick PLC [CWK] (38.6 p)
Establishment Investment Trust Plc [ET.](4.3 p)
Establishment Investment Trust Plc [ET.](3 p)
GB Group PLC [GBG] (2.65 p)
Greencoat Renewables Plc [GRP] (0.015 EUR)
Heavitree Brewery PLC [HVT] (3.68 p)
Immunodiagnostic Systems Holdings PLC [IDH] (1.7 p)
Martin Currie Pacific Trust [MCP] (14 p)
Polar Capital Global Financials Trust Plc [PCFT] (2.25 p)
Scapa Group PLC [SCPA] (2.4 p)
Shoe Zone Plc [SHOE] (3.5 p)
U and I Group Plc [UAI] (3.5 p)
Unicorn Aim Vct Plc [UAV] (3 p)
Vedanta Resources PLC [VED] (0.41 USD)
Walker Greenbank PLC [WGB] (3.68 p)

Friday 13th July

Acacia Mining – Interim Results
Citizens Financial – Q2 Earnings
General Electric – Q2 Earnings
Honeywell International – Q2 Earnings
Stanley Black & Decker – Q2 Earnings

Sources: Bloomberg/Companies

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