Another round of Brexit talks, central bank policy decisions and more earnings releases.

Brexit talks


The next round of negotiations begins on Thursday with two days of talks between the UK and EU expected to yield more progress than previous meetings. That is because the UK’s chief negotiator and Brexit secretary, David Davis, has signalled Britain may be prepared to give ground to the EU over the much-contested divorce bill.

“The withdrawal agreement, on balance, will probably favour the union in terms of things like money and so on,” he told MPs, adding that the plan is to “strategically accelerate the process”.  His counterpart, Michel Barnier, has also been sounding more positive, saying that he is “ready to speed up negotiations”.

Talks on the future UK-EU relationship cannot proceed until the divorce is settled and the bill is seen as the largest sticking point. If the next round of talks deliver a breakthrough on the amount Britain is made to pay, the two sides could yet able to achieve a comprehensive deal in time.

Among the many businesses affected, airlines are perhaps the keenest to see progress sooner as they will need to publish their summer 2019 timetables early next year.


Disney and US department store earnings


Wall Street earnings season rumbles on with some of the big names on Main Street due to report Q3 earnings. Dow component Disney (DIS) reports on Thursday with the market looking for progress on the firm’s shift away from relying on ESPN earnings and a new focus on its direc-to-consumer offering. Specifically there is real optimism around Disney’s Netflix-rival streaming service, which Morgan Stanley reckons could be worth $25bn by generating $5 billion in revenue and $1.5 billion of EBITDA.

Thursday also sees embattled retailers Kohl’s Corp (KSS), Macy’s (M) and Nordstrom (JWN) update the market. Shares in all three have been sliding as Amazon destroys their market share and more shoppers go online. Q2 earnings from Macy’s and Kohl’s offered up the familiar picture of falling sales, but there were signs that the department stores are taking steps to arrest the decline. Nordstrom actually saw revenues rise as more customers shopped online with it.

Marks and Spencer results


Following Next’s (NXT) poor Q3 results and a rather murky outlook for Q4, shares in Marks and Spencer (MKS) slumped 4%. All eyes are therefore on the company’s interim results statement on Wednesday as it too seems to be a victim of declining high street clothing sales. The recent departure of fashion boss Jo Jenkins so close to the key Christmas trading period doesn’t help inspire confidence.

The other FTSE 100 results this week come from Sainsbury’s (SBRY), Burberry (BRBY), Primark-owner Associated British Foods (ABF) and Imperial Brands (IMB).

Central bank meetings


Following the Fed and Bank of England last week, it’s the turn of the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to set policy. Neither is expected to raise rates now but there is increasing speculation that ‘normalisation’ could commence in early to mid-2018. Guidance on their willingness to raise rates in the future will be important for AUD and NZD trades.

DAX earnings


It’s a busy week for Germany 30 traders with a host of DAX components set to report their Q3 earnings. Thursday could be a volatile session with companies making up more than 27% of the index by weighting, including Merck (MRK), Siemens (SIE), Continental (CON), Deutsche Post (DPW), Deutsche Telekom (DTE) and Commerzbank (CBK) due to report.


Economic Calendar

(All times GMT)

Sunday, 5 November

Daylight savings time ends in US and Canada

Monday, 6 November

02:00 – New Zealand inflation expectations

07:00 – German factor orders

09:00 – Eurozone final services PMI

09:30 – Eurozone Sentix investor confidence

All day – Eurogroup meetings

15:00 – Canada Ivey PMI


Tuesday, 7 November

00:01 – UK BRC retail sales monitor

03:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate, rate statement

07:00 – German industrial production

08:30 – UK Halifax house price index

Tentative – UK inflation report hearings

All day – European Council ECOFIN meetings

15:00 – US Jolts job openings

Wednesday, 8 November

Tentative – China trade balance

13:30 – Canada building permits

15:30 – US crude oil inventories

20:00 – Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate, rate statement

21:00 – RBNZ press conference

23:50 – Japan core machinery orders, BoJ summary of opinions, bank lending

Thursday, 9 November

00:01 – UK RICS house price balance

01:30 – China CPI and PPI inflation

06:00 – Japan preliminary tool orders

07:00 – German trade balance

09:00 – ECB economic bulletin

09:30 – UK manufacturing production, goods trade balance, construction output

10:00 – EU economic forecasts

13:00 – UK NISER GDP estimate

13:30 – Canada new housing price index

13:30 – US weekly unemployment claims

Friday, 10 November

00:30 – RBA monetary policy statement

07:00 – German final CPI inflation

07:45 – French industrial production, private payrolls

09:00 – Italian industrial production, preliminary GDP

15:00 – Preliminary UoM consumer sentiment

Corporate Calendar


Monday, 6 November

Mylan (MYL) – Q3/2017, EPS estimate 1.201

Tuesday, 7 November

Direct Line Insurance Group (DLG) – Q3 trading update

Associated British Foods (ABF) – Year end results

Imperial Brands (IMB) – preliminary results

BMW (BMW) – Q3/2017, EPS estimate 2.650

Wednesday, 8 November

Marks and Spencer Group (MKS) – interim results

Persimmon (PSN) – trading update

JD Wetherspoon (JDW) – trading update

Tullow Oil (TLW) – trading update

SSE (SSE) – interim results

E.ON (EOAN) – Q3/2017, EPS estimate 0.010

HeidelbergCement (HEI) – Q3/2017, EPS estimate 2.237

Vonovia (VNA) – Q3/2017, EPS estimate 0.430

Thursday, 9 November

Kohl’s Corp (KSS) – Q3/2018, EPS estimate 0.720

Macy’s (M) – Q3/2018, EPS estimate 0.154

Nordstrom (JWN) – Q3/2018, EPS estimate 0.636

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) – Q3/2018, EPS estimate 1.071

Walt Disney Co (DIS) – Q4/2017, EPS estimate 1.170

Sainsbury’s (SBRY) – interim results

Wizz Air Holdings (WIZZ) – interim results

Halfords (HFD) – interim results

AstraZeneca (AZN) – Q3 trading update

Coca-Cola HBC (CCH) – Q3 trading update

Inmarsat (ISAT) – Q3 trading update

Burberry Group (BRBY) – interim results

Adidas (ADS) – Q3/2017, EPS estimate 2.552

Commerzbank (CBK) – Q3/2017, EPS estimate 0.120

Continental (CON) – Q3/2017, EPS estimate 3.720

Deutsche Post (DPW) – Q3/2017, EPS estimate 0.507

Deutsche Telekom (DTE) – Q3/2017, EPS estimate 0.240

Merck (MRK) – Q3/2017, EPS estimate 1.474

ProSiebenSat.1 Media (PSM) – Q3/2017, EPS estimate 0.413

Siemens (SIE) – Y/2017, EPS estimate 7.780

Friday, 10 November

Allianz SE (ALV) – Q3/2017, EPS estimate 3.903

Source: Bloomberg


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