Following a glut of jawboning by various central bankers that sent forex markets into a bit of a flap, the focus this week is on the more mundane batch of monthly data releases that mark the start of the second half of the year.  

Nonfarm Payrolls

 

The big data event is Friday’s monthly gauge of US labour market health, the always keenly-anticipated nonfarm payrolls and average earnings report. The data is seen as a key indicator of the state of the US economy and the likely path of monetary policy.

It has added spice this month as markets are increasingly betting against the Fed’s willingness to tighten. A flattening yield curve has many economists concerned about a potential Fed policy ‘mistake’ that could lead to recession. The Fed says it will hike once more this year but with the spread between 2-year and longer maturity paper collapsing many are worried the Fed is tightening too quickly. The spread between the 2-year and 10-year notes has shrunk to its lowest since last August’s nine-year low.

In addition to the headline number, the average weekly earnings data is an important gauge of inflationary pressures feeding through into the economy.

PMIs

 

The start of the month sees the usual deluge of purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs), which will complete the picture for Q2 growth in the major economies. Manufacturing surveys are out on Monday with service sector reports on Wednesday.

G20 Meetings

 

Geopolitics and macro-economic trends will be among the talking points as world leaders gather for the G20 meetings in Hamburg, which kick off on Friday. Issues such as climate change, free trade and migration will feature heavily.

Canada rates

 

A batch of economic data from Canada will be closely followed by forex markets as traders raise their expectations for a rate rise this summer. More hawkish comments from Bank of Canada governor Stephen Poloz has upped the chances the central bank will pull the trigger at its July meeting.  The Bank of Canada is due to decide on policy on July 12th.

RBA

Sticking with central banks and it’s the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision on Tuesday. With potentially thin liquidity stemming from the US Independence Day holiday it could be a bit choppy.

Even though the central bank is widely anticipated to hold rates at this meeting, there are signs policymakers are eyeing an imminent path towards normalisation. The RBA has forecast inflation returning to target and economic growth to surge to 3% as the global economy picks up. Former board member John Edwards recently weighed into the debate by suggesting the bank could raise rates as many as eight times in the next two years.

Economic Calendar

(All times BST)

Monday, 3 July

US markets close early

00:50 – Japan Tankan manufacturing & non-manufacturing indices

01:30 – Japan final manufacturing PMI

02:30 – Australia building approvals

02:45 – China Caixin manufacturing PMI

09:00 – Eurozone final manufacturing PMI June, Italy unemployment

09:30 – UK manufacturing PMI

15:00 – US ISM manufacturing PMI

23:00 – New Zealand NZIER business confidence

 

Tuesday, 4 July

All day – US markets shut for Independence Day holiday

02:30 – Australia retail sales

05:30 – Reserve Bank of Australia cash rate & statement

06:00 – Bank of Japan core CPI

08:00 – Spain unemployment rate

09:30 – UK construction PMI

Wednesday, 5 July

09:00 – Eurozone final services PMI

09:30 – UK services PMI

15:00 – US factory orders

19:00 – FOMC meeting minutes

Thursday, 6 July

02:30 – Australia trade balance

08:15 – Swiss CPI inflation

12:30 – ECB monetary policy accounts

13:15 – US ADP nonfarm employment change

13:30 – Canada trade balance, building permits

13:30 – US trade balance, weekly unemployment claims

15:00 – US ISM non-manufacturing PMI

16:30 – US crude oil inventories

Friday, 7 July

All day – G20 meetings kick off

08:30 – Halifax UK house price index

09:30 – UK manufacturing production

13:30 – Canada unemployment rate, employment change

13:30 – US nonfarm payrolls, average earnings

Corporate Calendar

 

Tuesday, 4 July

St Mowden Properties (SMP) – interim results

Wednesday, 5 July

SIG (SHI) – trading update

Booker Group (BOK) – trading update

Thursday, 6 July

Bovis Homes Group (BVS) – trading update

Persimmon (PSN) – trading update

Friday, 7 July

Dunelm Group (DNLM) – trading update

Source: Bloomberg