Politics

 

It’s hard for investors to get away from politics and this week there should be continued focus on both Brexit and Trump’s legislative agenda.

Brexit talks rumble on with a little more certainty about the state of the British government following the Queen’s Speech and the (imminent) signing of a deal between the Conservatives and DUP.

In the US, we’re back to healthcare reform as the Senate GOP wants a vote of repealing significant chunks of the Affordable Care Act this week. As in the past, it ought to keep the investor focus on whether Trump is a lame duck or if he still has enough muscle to get votes through and eventually pass hyped tax reform.  And as is usually the case with the president, things are a little complicated as he has dubbed the bill on the slate as “mean”. 

Eurozone Inflation

 

Eurozone CPI and core CPI flash estimates will be among the most closely watched economic releases of the week. The ECB downgraded its outlook on inflation in 2017 to 1.5% from a previous estimate of 1.7%, and has also dialled back its expectations for 2018 and 2019.

CPI in the euro area has failed to take off, while the more closely-watched core number cannot reach escape velocity. In May the core CPI fell to 0.9% from 1.2% in April. The lack of inflation leaves the ECB able to swat away suggestions of tightening – a process it will only commence when inflation looks to be sustainable.

EURUSD has rallied by around 6% this year as growth ticks up, corporate earnings improve and political risks recede. But it has faltered a little in June after the Fed stuck to its guns on a third rate hike and the ECB made clear it has no plans to tighten soon in light of weaker inflation. This makes the CPI release a big event for any the pair.

Final GDPs

 

The final prints for Q1 GDP growth in the US and UK arrive this week and should confirm that both experienced a pretty lacklustre start to the year.

UK growth was revised down from 0.3% after the first reading to a paltry 0.2%. A further downgrade could weigh on the pound and gilts.

For the US, the numbers are going in the opposite direction, with the second estimate revising Q1 growth up from 0.9% to 1.2%.

Japan data

 

After the Bank of Japan stood pat on rates and confirmed it will continue a 0% for government bonds, there is batch of economic data out Friday morning that will be of interest to anyone trading JPY forex pairs. Household spending, national core CPI, Tokyo core CPI, unemployment, and preliminary industrial production figures are due early doors on June 30th.

Companies

 

Few major companies reporting this week as Wall Street prepares for Q2 earnings season in July. But in the UK are some interesting results due out that should help paint a better picture of the state of the consumer economy, particularly after some soggy retail sales figures and a warning from DFS put retail stocks on edge. Pub chain Greene King, retail Dixons Carphone and upholsterer Carpetright are among the companies to report.

 

Economic Calendar

(All times are BST)

Monday, 26 June

09:00 – German Ifo business climate

09:30 – BBA mortgage approvals

13:30 – US core durable goods orders

Tuesday, 27 June

07:45 – French preliminary CPI

15:00 – US CB consumer confidence

Wednesday, 28 June

07:00 – UK Nationwide house price index

10:00 – Italian preliminary CPI

15:00 – US pending home sales

15:30 – US crude oil inventories

Thursday, 29 June

All day – Italy bank holiday

00:50 – Japan retail sales

02:00 – ANZ business confidence

07:00 – German preliminary CPI

08:00 – Spanish flash CPI

09:30 – UK net lending to individuals, mortgage approvals

13:30 – US final Q1 GDP reading, weekly unemployment claims

Friday, 30 June

00:01 – UK GfK consumer confidence

00:30 – Japan household spending, national core CPI, Tokyo core CPI, unemployment rates

00:50 – Japan preliminary industrial production

02:00 – China manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs

09:30 – UK current account, final Q1 GDP reading

10:00 – Eurozone CPI and core CPI flash estimates

13:30 – Canada GDP, core PCE price index

14:45 – US Chicago PMI

15:00 – Revised University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Corporate Calendar

 

Tuesday, 27 June

Carpetright (CPR) – Y/2017, EPS estimate 0.167

Wednesday, 28 June

Dixons Carphone (DC) – Y/2017, EPS estimate 0.306

Thursday, 29 June

Nike (NKE) – Q4/2017, EPS estimate 0.501

Walgreens Boots Alliance (WBA) – Q3/2017, EPS estimate 1.300

Greene King (GNK) – Y/2017, EPS estimate 0.707

Source: Bloomberg