Week Ahead - EU referendum set to dominate proceedings

Thursday’s EU referendum threatens to be the only game in town this week as markets are primed for increased volatility whether Britons vote in or out.

Choppy trading sessions are highly likely across forex, CFD stocks, bonds and even commodities in the following days.

To help guide traders through the volatility we’re running our special Brexit Webinar Series all week – don’t miss out on your chance to learn how markets may react to events as they happen.

The Week Ahead


Polls indicate the result is too close to call, with momentum building behind the leave camp over the last fortnight.

Voting opens at 07:00 (BST) and lasts until 22:00. Traders will be closely watching for the exit polls, which are released shortly after the polling stations close.

Counting takes place overnight, with regional results announced throughout the small hours of Friday morning. Expect a final result on Friday around breakfast time but we may have a good idea before then. It’s going to be a long night for traders whatever happens.

Ahead of the referendum, there is one major decision due from Germany that could have far-reaching consequences for the European Central Bank’s monetary policy.

The German constitutional court will deliver its long-awaited ruling on the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions on June 21st. The Karlsruhe-based court will decided whether the scheme infringes the EU’s ban on “monetary financing” of governments. If the court rules against OMT, the Bundesbank could opt out of the programme and it could make for an interesting ECB meeting in July. Meanwhile we also have a small clutch of earnings releases.

Economic Calendar

(All times are BST)

Tuesday, June 21st

Tentative - Germany’s constitutional court to rule on ECB’s OMT programme

10:00 – German ZEW economic sentiment

Wednesday , June 22nd

15:30 – US crude oil inventories

Thursday, June 23rd

All Day – Britain’s EU referendum

08:00-09:00 – EU, French, German flash manufacturing & services PMIs

Friday, June 24th

Tentative – Britain’s EU referendum result known

13:30 – US core durable goods orders


Monday, June 20th

Majestic Wine (WINE) – Y/2016, EPS estimate £0.143

Tuesday, June 21st

Adobe Systems (ADBE) – Q2 2016, EPS estimate $0.68

FedEx Corp (FDX) – Q4 2016, EPS estimate $3.292

Wednesday , June 22nd

Bed Bath & Beyond Inc (BBBY) – Q1 2017, EPS estimate $0.86

Blackberry (BBRY) - Q1 2017, EPS estimate, -$0.1

Source: Bloomberg/CNBC

Added market volatility means increased opportunity but also more risk. To reflect this, ETX Capital may be increasing margin rates on certain markets.