Apple Earnings


Earnings season continues apace on Wall Street and on Tuesday it’s the big one: Apple. Shares in Apple continue to hit record highs with the stock one of the prime drivers of the Nasdaq’s ascent this year as promises of tax reform boost sentiment. But can it continue to post record-breaking EPS?

Last quarter Apple defied gravity and posted record first quarter results. But this quarter could disappoint – UBS and JPMorgan have both warned that near-term results from the company could be below expectations. But with all eyes on the next iPhone refresh it may be that investors will overlook soggy numbers this time.

Chart: Apple has enjoyed strong gains since Trump’s election




Friday’s nonfarm payrolls will yield the usual influence on Treasury and forex markets as investors look to this key data for an indication about the future path of monetary policy in the US.

Figures for March were a big disappointment – 98,000 was well below the recent average. But so far that’s not dissuaded the market from thinking the Fed will probably hike rates again at its June meeting.

Federal Reserve


Ahead of the NFP figures there is the not insignificant matter of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday. Markets don’t expect this to be a live meeting, with CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicating just a 5% chance policymakers will raise rates this week. The consensus is for the next move higher to come in June, which places the emphasis for Treasury and currency markets on Friday’s NFP release.

FTSE heavyweights


In the UK there are updates from three of the FTSE 100’s largest companies by market capitalisation – Royal Dutch Shell, BP and HSBC. Combined these shares account for more than 20% of the blue chip index by weighting. Other large caps to report this week include Shire and Imperial Brands, while we have trading updates from supermarkets J Sainsbury and Morrisons.



Oil is back in focus as we look ahead to OPEC’s meeting later in May and whether the cartel can agree to extend production cuts to counteract a continued supply glut. Weekly crude oil inventories on Wednesday are the highlight but also expect continued speculation around OPEC’s willingness to continue lowering output to boost prices. Over a two-week period in April Nymex crude futures slipped nearly 10% amid signs that US shale production is surging.


Economic Calendar

(All times BST)

Sunday, 30 April

02:00 – Chain manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs

Monday, 1 May

All day – Bank holiday in UK, China, Germany, Italy, Switzerland

10:00 – EU economic forecasts

12:45 – US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin to speak

13:30 – US core PCE price index, personal spending

15:00 – US ISM manufacturing PMI

Tuesday, 2 May

02:45 – China Caixin manufacturing PMI

05:30 – Australia RBA interest rate statement

08:15 – Spanish manufacturing PMI

09:00 – Eurozone final manufacturing PMI

09:30 – UK manufacturing PMI

23:45 – New Zealand unemployment rate

Wednesday, 3 May

08:00 – Spanish unemployment change

08:55 – German unemployment change

09:30 – UK construction PMI

10:00 – Eurozone preliminary flash GDP

13:15 – US ADP nonfarm employment change

15:00 – US ISM non-manufacturing PMI

15:30 – US crude oil inventories

19:00 – Federal Reserve meeting and interest rate statement

Thursday, 4 May

02:30 – Australia trade balance data

04:10 – RBA Governor Lowe speaks

09:00 – Eurozone final services PMI

09:30 – UK services PMI, net lending to individuals, mortgage approvals

10:00 – Eurozone retail sales

13:30 – Canada trade balance data

13:30 – US weekly unemployment claims, preliminary nonfarm productivity, trade balance

15:00 – US factory orders

21:25 – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz to speak

Friday, 5 May

02:30 – RBA monetary policy statement

13:30 – US nonfarm payrolls, average earnings

13:30 – Canada unemployment rate

Sunday, 7 May

All day – French presidential election second round vote

Corporate Calendar


Tuesday, 2 May

Apple (AAPL) – Q2/2017, EPS estimate 2.021

Merck & Co (MRK) – Q1/2017, EPS estimate 0.832

Mondelez International (MDLZ) – Q1/2017, EPS estimate 0.502

Mylan (MYL) – Q1/2017, EPS estimate 0.949

Pfizer (PFE) – Q1/2017, EPS estimate 0.669

Aberdeen Asset Management (AND) – S1/2017, EPS estimate 0.107

BP (BP) – Q1/2017, EPS estimate 0.069

Shire (SHP) – Q1/2017

Wednesday, 3 May

Kraft Heinz Co (KHC) – Q1/2017, EPS estimate 0.858

Imperial Brands (IMB) – S1/2017, EPS estimate 1.201

J Sainsbury (SBRY) – Y/2017, EPS estimate 0.204

Thursday, 4 May

Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) – Q1/2017

William Morrison (MRW) – Q1 trading update

HSBC (HSBA) – Q1/2017, EPS estimate 0.190

Friday, 5 May

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK/A) – Q1/2017, EPS estimate 2,705.130

International Consolidated Airlines (IAG) – Q1/2017, EPS estimate 0.080

Source: Bloomberg


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