Market events: This week's GPD prints from the UK and US will be the most important data releases for trading cable.

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UK

The Q2 preliminary GDP print is due at 09:30 (BST) on July 26th.

Outlook:

The National Institute for Economic and Social Research estimates that output grew by 0.2% in the three months ending in April 2017 after growth of 0.3 per cent in the three months ending in March 2017.

Rebecca Piggott, research fellow at NIESR, said “Growth in the service sector has remained subdued, consistent with softer consumer spending growth. We expect the squeeze on household real incomes to continue as inflation accelerates throughout the year, reaching almost 3½ per cent by year end. The MPC chose to keep interest rates unchanged today, and we expect the Bank of England to continue to look through this temporary pick up in the rate of inflation.”

The IMF this week downgraded its forecast for the year to 1.7% from a previous estimate of 2%, ostensibly as a result of "weaker-than-expected activity in the first quarter". A depressed business investment climate because of ongoing uncertainty around Brexit is also weighing on the outlook.

US

The Q2 advanced US print comes at 13:30 on Friday and is likely to show the economy doing well but still some way short of the 3% target set by the Trump administration.

According to the latest estimate from the Atlanta Fed, the US economy expanded by 2.5% in the second quarter. The New York Fed estimates growth at 2%, which has been steadily revised lower from above 3%.

The IMF has also downgraded its growth projections for the US as the belief in tax reform and infrastructure spending unleashing a golden era of economic expansion fades.

Growth in United States was revised down from 2.3 percent to 2.1 percent in 2017 and from 2.5 percent to 2.1 percent in 2018.

"While the markdown in the 2017 forecast reflects in part the weak growth outturn in the first quarter of the year, the major factor behind the growth revision, especially for 2018, is the assumption that fiscal policy will be less expansionary than previously assumed, given the uncertainty about the timing and nature of U.S. fiscal policy changes. Market expectations of fiscal stimulus have also receded," the IMF said.

 

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