By David Papier

Compared to the excitement of last week’s FOMC rate hike and Euro Zone inflation, the beginning of the week may seem a bit uneventful. There is, however, a whole raft of Manufacturing PMI data coming on Monday from the UK, Europe, USA and Canada. As the manufacturing sector dominates a large part of total GDP it will be an important indicator of business conditions within these economies.

In the early hours of Tuesday morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia provides us with their latest interest rate decision and statements regarding inflation and future rate hikes. The AUD has struggled against the majority of currencies in 2018, so any mention of higher inflation or future rate hikes could have a positive effect.

Turkish CPI inflation data is due at 08:00 (BST) on Wednesday morning followed by a steady stream of Services PMI data from the UK, Europe and the US throughout the rest of the day. The main focal point midweek will be the U.S. ADP employment change, which is often viewed as a precursor for the main jobs data due on Friday.


Thursday, however, will be a relatively quiet one with Australian import/export data, US Factory orders and Continuing Jobless Claims to be the only notable releases.

The week comes to a close with U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls, a release synonymous with volatility. The data represents the number of new jobs created in all non-agricultural business in the US throughout the previous month. Changes in payrolls can be extremely volatile due to their relation with economic policy decisions made by the Federal Reserve. The Central Bank pays close attention to this when setting interest rates as it is a significant indicator of labour cost inflation.

Finally be sure to pay close attention to any updates throughout the week regarding Brexit, and the global US trade saga, as any news is likely to influence the markets.

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Economic Calendar

(All times are in BST)

Monday, 1st October

07:00 GER Retail Sales
09:00 EUR Markit Manufacturing PMI
09:30 GBP Markit Manufacturing PMI
09:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals
10:00 EUR Unemployment Rate
14:30 CAD Markit Manufacturing PMI
14:45 USD Markit Manufacturing  PMI
15:00 USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
22:00 NZD NZIER Business Confidence

Tuesday, 2nd October

05:30 AUD RBA Interest Rate Decision
05:30 AUD Rate Statement
06:00 JPY Consumer Confidence
07:00 GBP Nationwide Housing Prices
09:30 GBP PMI Construction
10:00 EUR Producer Price Index
13:55 USD Redbook Index
21:30 USD API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

Wednesday, 3rd October

02:30 AUD Building Permits
08:00 TRY Producer Price Index
08:00 TRY Consumer Price Index
08:55 GER Markit Services PMI
08:55 GER Markit PMI Composite
09:00 EUR Markit Services PMI
09:00 EUR Markit PMI Composite
09:30 GBP Markit Services PMI
10:00 EUR Retail Sales
13:15 USD ADP Employment Change
14:45 USD Markit Services PMI
14:45 USD Markit PMI Composite
15:00 USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
15:30 USD EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change

UK Company Announcements

Topps Tiles PLC – Trading Statement
Tesco PLC – Interim Results

Thursday, 4th October

00:50 JPY Foreign investment in Japan Stocks
01:30 AUD Imports
01:30 AUD Exports
01:30 AUD Trade Balance
13:30 USD Initial Jobless Claims
13:30 USD Continuing Jobless Claims
15:00 USD Factory Orders
15:00 CAD Ivey Purchasing Managers Index
15:30 USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change

UK Company Announcements

Ted Baker PLC – Trading Statement

Friday, 5th October

00:30 AUD AiG Performance of Construction Index
00:30 JPY Overall Household Spending
01:30 AUD Retail Sales
07:00 GER Producer Price Index
07:00 GER Factory Orders
08:15 CHF Consumer Price Index
08:30 GBP Halifax House Prices
13:30 USD Average Weekly Hours
13:30 USD Average Hourly Earnings
13:30 USD Unemployment Rate
13:30 USD Nonfarm Payrolls
13:30 CAD Imports
13:30 CAD Exports
13:30 CAD International Merchandise Trade
13:30 CAD Unemployment Rate
13:30 CAD Net Change in Employment
19:00 USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count

Sources: Bloomberg/Companies

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