Spread betting - Dax technical analysis

This weekly DAX is showing some interesting price activity. Since the February lows to mid October highs price has risen by 24% finding weekly resistance at 10800. Now what is interesting is that the 10789 is the 76.4% retracement of the move from November 2015 highs to the February lows, this has clearly, for the short term, represented significant resistance. Moreover since early August we have witnessed a tight weekly consolidation between 10800-10390 and providing the continuation of downward pressure in today’s session we may be witnessing a lower break of this range.  Interestingly the support for this range was the 61.8% retracement, so price neatly traded between these two Fibonacci retracement zones so it would be worth noting that should this weekly candle close lower, this could be potential confirmation of the break.

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If this scenario plays true this would also be a suggestive break of the daily double top formation. What makes this potential break more interesting on the daily chart is that the 23.61% retracement falls in line with the neck line of the pattern, should the pattern behave as a conventional double top the potential measuring target would be 10085. However there could be some hurdles to overcome before such target could be achieved. For instance looking back at the weekly chart we can see the down trend line from the market highs, which was breached to the upside, therefore potentially breaking this down trend, on the 9th of August. Should this  potential test of the upside of the trend as a short term support around 10260.  In addition the Daily 63 SMA comes in at 10255 which may act as support as well as the weekly 63 SMA which resides at 10240, this could yet prove to be a strong confluence of support. 

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