By Michael Baker

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kicks off its 2-day meeting tomorrow and the streets are fairly confident that there are no surprises in store. It was only last month when the FED pushed on with their gradual rate increases, moving the target range from 1.50%/1.75% to 1.75%/2.00%.

Rate changes have become fairly synonymous with meetings concluding with a press conference, which we will not see this month. A press conference is not due until September’s meeting, which the CME FED Watch Tool has attributed an 88.7% chance of a hike to the next target band between 2.00/2.25. Recent tariff actions seem to have done little to put the FED off their hawkish path, however, the committee had previously motioned towards ‘international developments’ as an area that dictates policy action.

The US dollar has continued to push on heavy over the past few months, trading in a symmetrical triangle since the start of May. There have been glimpses of potential breakouts, however, the market can’t seem to get above 1.1743/60. Any moves higher could see the Dollar push up to the June highs of between 1.1821/54.

EURUSD 4 hourly Chart – Showing Signs Of A Potential Breakout

ETX-Chart_FED_Breakout

Source: ETX Capital



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